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Free access: model-to-market matchday preview and matchday roundup audit.

# Friday Matchday Preview (2026-02-27 to 2026-03-02)

## Snapshot

| League | Fixtures | Value plays | Biggest edge % |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| A-League | 6 | 2 | 20.87 |
| J.League | 10 | 1 | 24.73 |
| K-League 1 | 5 | 0 | 16.67 |
| MLS | 15 | 8 | 55.64 |

## Metrics Lens (team_repo)

| League | Top recent rating | Top net recent xGOT |
|---|---:|---:|
| A-League | 7.69 | 14.00 |
| J.League | 7.61 | 14.00 |
| K-League 1 | 7.60 | 12.00 |
| MLS | 8.46 | 0.00 |

## Matches To Watch

- **Chicago Fire FC vs CF Montréal** (MLS, 2026-03-01 05:30) - value on **AWAY** at 55.64% (fair 2.75 vs market 4.28)
- **San Diego FC vs St. Louis City SC** (MLS, 2026-03-02 12:15) - value on **AWAY** at 37.76% (fair 2.86 vs market 3.94)
- **New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution** (MLS, 2026-03-01 05:30) - value on **AWAY** at 32.02% (fair 2.53 vs market 3.34)
- **Houston Dynamo FC vs LAFC** (MLS, 2026-03-01 11:30) - value on **HOME** at 31.34% (fair 2.01 vs market 2.64)
- **Austin FC vs D.C. United** (MLS, 2026-03-02 05:30) - value on **AWAY** at 28.33% (fair 2.33 vs market 2.99)
- **San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC** (MLS, 2026-03-01 10:30) - value on **AWAY** at 27.27% (fair 2.31 vs market 2.94)
- **Yokohama F.Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy** (J.League, 2026-02-28 14:00) - value on **AWAY** at 24.73% (fair 1.86 vs market 2.32)
- **Colorado Rapids vs Portland Timbers** (MLS, 2026-03-01 07:30) - value on **AWAY** at 23.32% (fair 1.93 vs market 2.38)
- **LA Galaxy vs Charlotte FC** (MLS, 2026-03-01 13:30) - value on **HOME** at 21.32% (fair 1.36 vs market 1.65)
- **Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney FC** (A-League, 2026-03-01 12:00) - value on **HOME** at 20.87% (fair 2.30 vs market 2.78)

## Visuals

- Top edges chart: `./preview_top_edges.png`
- Fair vs market scatter: `./preview_fair_vs_market.png`

---
Data source: `prod.fairodds_repo`, `prod.team_repo`.

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# Monday Matchday Round-up (2026-02-26 to 2026-02-28)

## Performance Snapshot

- Completed matches in window: **28**
- Value plays placed: **2**
- Total stake (units): **3.00**
- P/L (units): **-3.00**
- ROI: **-100.00%**
- Model/result alignment (non-draws): **6/7**

## League Breakdown

| League | Matches | Plays | P/L (units) |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| A-League | 5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| J.League | 8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| K-League 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| MLS | 11 | 2 | -3.00 |
| Serie A Brazil | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |

## Closing Value Checks

### lock_closing_value
- worse_than_close: 2

### fair_closing_value
- insufficient_data: 19
- moved_toward_fair: 6
- moved_away_from_fair: 3

## Outliers / Notable Results

- **Chicago Fire FC 3-0 CF Montréal** (MLS, 2026-02-28 14:30) | margin 3 | locked side: away | edge: 51.70% | result: loss
- **Colorado Rapids 2-0 Portland Timbers** (MLS, 2026-02-28 16:30) | margin 2 | locked side: away | edge: 22.68% | result: loss

## Visuals

- P/L by league: `./roundup_pl_by_league.png`
- Outcome split by league: `./roundup_outcomes.png`

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